Year in review 2025: what on-chain data tells us

2025 was not a revolutionary year for Bitcoin — but one with many interesting structural shifts. We dug through our database and summarise the most important observations.

1. Mixer landscape: fewer, but tougher

The number of actively used mixers continued to decline in 2025. After the takedowns of ChipMixer (2023) and Sinbad (2024), remaining volume shifted to a few smaller services and — above all — to CoinJoin coordinator services.

At the same time, our data shows: total volume across classical mixers has fallen by roughly 80 % compared to 2022. But volume flowing through cross-chain swaps (THORChain, Chainflip, Bridgers) has multiplied. The demand for obfuscation remains — it just looks for new channels.

2. Mining pool consolidation

The top-3 mining pools hold more than 60 % of hashrate by the end of 2025 (Foundry, AntPool, ViaBTC). That is concerning from a decentralisation perspective, but favourable for forensics: coinbase patterns and payout structures are easier to fingerprint when pools are concentrated. New payout models like Stratum V2 are starting to spread but do not yet affect forensic identifiability.

3. ETF custody wallets: ever-larger fish ponds

Bitcoin spot ETFs, particularly the US products, held over 1.3 million BTC in custody by mid-2025. Most of that sits with a handful of custodians — predominantly Coinbase Custody, but also Gemini, Fidelity, and BitGo. These huge, well-tagged clusters make "where-is-BTC-flowing-to" analyses increasingly straightforward, because a large share of volume now moves to known custody addresses.

4. Regulation: MiCA in effect, DAC8 approaching

The full entry into force of MiCA on 30 December 2024 has aligned compliance practices among CASPs across Europe. Noteworthy:

• The Travel Rule is actually being implemented — we see significantly more documented counterparty information in transfer metadata between European CASPs.
• Self-custodied wallets are supported worse by European exchanges today than in 2023 — some providers require notarised wallet proofs.

With DAC8 from 2026, the next major change is just around the corner. Tax authorities that have not yet built on-chain competence should act now.

5. The database keeps growing

A few numbers from our own work:

• 37 million provider address tags by year-end — about 4 million more than in 2024
• 10 heuristic categories with more than 40 individual procedures, documented in our methodology
• New in 2025: cross-chain swap detection for THORChain, Chainflip, and Bridgers

6. Our outlook for 2026

Three themes will shape the year:

1. DAC8 rollout: Tax authorities will broadly receive CASP reports — demand for complementary on-chain analysis will rise accordingly.
2. 6AMLD / AMLA preparation: Banks with crypto exposure are building out compliance processes. This is where the largest consulting need sits.
3. Further cross-chain forensics: Additional protocols, deeper multi-chain analysis, integration with EVM and Solana analyses.

We thank all partners, customers, and fellow travellers of 2025 — and are looking forward to 2026.

The Coinator team wishes calm holidays and a good start into the new year.